There is a lot of cash to be won this week on DraftKings including a top prize of $30k from the main tournament. I will be going thicker than usual this week following the big GPP prizes, and that I will play less money games than normal. This is the first time we’ve observed a $30k top prize, therefore I think it’s worth chasing if you’ve got the bankroll to get it.
We did lose the co-main occasion with Max Holloway pulling out of this fight against Brian Ortega, so we are down to 11 battles and we ought to observe a great deal of ties with this card together with all the more popular lineups. If you are chasing that $30K then you’ll want to attempt to be a bit different with your lineup so that you can separate yourself from the remainder of the field. That said, let’s get into a few plays I enjoy in addition to my fade of the week.
Cash Game play of the week — Paul Felder ($7,400)
The DK pricing with this fight is far off from the gambling line. On DK, Felder is $1,400 less than his competitor, Mike Perry. On the betting line, Felder is the -150 favorite. That’s just too much line worth to pass on in money games and that makes Felder that the”free square” this week. Even if he loses this fight, he should be so highly owned that it won’t even hurt your lineup in money games. In GPP’s, Felder will be one of the greatest owned fighters on the card and if he loses there then it could kill your lineup, so maybe think about avoiding the chalk there if you can. But with this crazy line value we are getting here, Paul Felder is the easy choice for the money game play of the week.
GPP drama of the week — Mike Perry ($8,800)
Ok, I know this sounds a little weird since I just chose Paul Felder because my money play of this week, but hear me out. In cash games, we don’t care about possession. If Felder is 90% owned in money games, then it doesn’t damage your lineup because only 10% of lineups didn’t have him and you merely need to be top ~50 percent of the area to cash in cash games. In GPPs, I’m guessing Felder will be over 50% possessed. When he loses, that is half of the area that is dead with no shot at winning 1st location.
Mike Perry on the other hand will be less than 20% owned, and maybe closer to 10% simply due to the mispriced line. If Felder kills and loses off 50% of lineups, then you get a win using the low owned guy to put you in a far better place of a solo 1st place win and possibly hitting $30k. Perry has the capability to KO anyone and Paul Felder is carrying this fight on short notice in a weight class above his branch. Can it really shock you that much if Perry could KO him? In GPPs, we are looking for that boom or bust play and that is Mike Perry this week making him my GPP play of the week.
Underdog drama of the week — Anthony Pettis ($7,600)
Anthony Pettis could have been a -500 favored over Michael Chiesa if this struggle happened 5 decades before, but today we get a evaporating Pettis as an underdog and $1,000 cheaper than Chiesa on DraftKings. I think Pettis can keep this battle standing for many the fight which should give him a huge advantage. He’s also dangerous on the ground himself and when he is taken I think he is going to have the ability to get up if he isn’t able to acquire a entry of his very own. If Pettis can acquire a decision then I think he will pay his off DK price tag and will be a fantastic underdog to use so you can save salary on your lineups. I may even see this battle ending from Pettis dropping Chiesa using a human body kick and if this happens he will likely be on the winning lineup when he can make it happen in round 1.
Fade of this week — Rafael Assuncao ($9,100)
At $9.1k, I have zero interest in Assuncao this weekend. I do think he wins the struggle, but I do not see him paying off that high price tag. He doesn’t fight at a heavy pace and he hasn’t gotten a takedown in his past 4 wins and the floor is where he’ll have his main edge in this matchup. In those last 4 wins, Assuncao has not scored over 78 DK points and in his wages this week I want at least 91 points out of him to cover that much. I’d rather cover the men higher priced than Assuncao, or even go down to Vannata or Miocic. I’ll have at least 20 lineups this weekend and Assuncao will be in 0 of these, making him my fade of this week.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and provide my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all of my pick predictions, you’ll find that for just $7.99 on this link below:
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